It might have been a matter of time until the biggest sporting event
on the planet was going to expand. The question was when and by how
much. On Wednesday, we got that answer. The answer was by 16 and it will
happen in time for the 2026 World Cup.
Whether it’s March Madness, College Football Playoff, the Olympics or
the FIFA World Cup. They all have one thing in common. They will expand
when it makes sense financially. And that’s exactly what FIFA did and
they accomplished it with a bang.
Unsurprisingly, there was controversy after the announcement
throughout the world. While the 48-team World Cup is met with an
overwhelming amount of optimism from countries like Peru, Panama,
Albania, Uganda and Bahrain, a few will all be eager to taste the World
Cup with a much higher percentage. The one criticism about the 32-team
World Cup was it was the same teams qualifying cycle after cycle, and
that cinderella runs only happened when a country received a good draw.
There’s a lot to discuss, so let’s begin with the good, the bad and
the down right ugly over things regarding World Cup expansion.
The Good
48 teams will mean more education and more tourism for the host
country and less importance on the draw that a country is given. World
Cup Qualifying’s room for error is razor-thin on the surface, so it does
make sense to expand. Even when teams do qualify, there are some, that
don’t have a chance of reaching to the knockout stage.
In fact, there is going to be a new format for the 2026 World Cup.
Instead of eight groups of four, there will be 16 groups of three. This
will eliminate and decrease the chances of “Group of Deaths” that will
level the playing field. More importantly, the knockout stage will begin
with 32 teams creating a higher chance of different matchups in the
early rounds.
The Bad
Despite a 48 team World Cup seeming like a good idea, World Cup
Qualifying has instantly become boring for teams like Germany, Spain,
Mexico, Brazil, Japan and Ghana to name a few. Those countries are
regional powerhouses that should have no problem qualifying for 2026.
In addition, the actual World Cup might become diluted with average
teams qualifying regularly. As of now, it is too early to say that this
will actually come true until we see the Qualifying formats regionally.
To continue, the World Cup happens every four years and qualifying for
one should be special. A 48 team World Cup isn’t special to qualify
anymore.
A huge concern that will come up is the upcoming biding for future
World Cups. With the increased number of teams, comes an increased
number of games. That means an increased number of millions it will cost
to host a World Cup and consequently decrease the number of countries
able to bid for World Cups in the future.
The Ugly
16 groups of 3? Who’s brilliant idea was that? It doesn’t take a
calculus major at the University of Duke to figure out that groups of
three will be a gong-show to say the least.
I present to you Rock Paper Scissorology: Everyone has played it as a
kid, rock beats scissors, paper beats rock, but scissors beat paper. In
this study, this is what FIFA has gotten themselves into. Let’s say we
are in Group M and it features Croatia, Panama and Cameroon. In this
group, Croatia would be the favorite but not by much. Well what happens
if Croatia beats Panama 1-0, Panama beats Cameroon 1-0, and Cameroon
beats Croatia 1-0? All realistic score lines against three competitive
teams. At the end of the day, you have a complete three-way tie. This is
not too far-fetched from becoming a disastrous situation.
To make stuff even more of a nightmare, FIFA enforced that “their
will be shootouts to decide ties.” Unfortunately, my math says that
won’t solve much except for exciting back and forth action. In fact,
even with shootouts in place, my rock, paper, scissors theory still
exists.
Also, with three team groups, there will be a huge advantage to the
two teams playing in the final game.For instance, a team might not know
if their eliminated until after the final game, which isn’t fair to the
odd team out.
At the end of the day, FIFA had to change something, but I
think they made too drastic of a move. Potentially, they should have
maybe tested this format in the Europa League or Champions League to see
if fans liked it because most fans are puzzled by the format. 2026 is
nine years away, and hopefully FIFA hasn’t ruined the most watched
month-long sporting event in the world.
