Who will Score the Goals for Vancouver Next Year?

The Canucks are in a conundrum this offseason. They failed to get anything from Boeser and Suter at the trade deadline and with limited options to replace those players when free agency opens on July 1st, the question of who will replace the loss of 50 goals is a slightly concerning one. 

Assuming that there are no trades in the offseason the Canucks will return 189 goals. Fortunately, a handful of Canucks had really bad years there is a chance that Vancouver can return without a major eye opening move. 

NAME
Jake DeBrusk LW      28                                      25
Brock Boeser RW 25                                              0*
Pius Suter C    25                                                      0*
Conor Garland RW    19                                               20
Kiefer Sherwood LW   19                                               15
Quinn Hughes D    16                                                    20
Elias Pettersson C   15                                                 30
J.T. Miller LW  9                                                                  0*
Teddy Blueger C    8                                                             8
Nils Hoglander LW    8                                                   20
Dakota Joshua C               7                                         10
Aatu Raty C                       7                                       15
Tyler Myers D    6                                                  6
Danton Heinen LW     6                                       0*
Filip Hronek D        5                                        5
Drew O'Connor LW *   4                       10
Carson Soucy D  3                                         0*
Erik Brannstrom D   3                                    0*
Max Sasson C      3                                          5
Jona      3                                                           10
Linus Karlsson C     3                                      3
Derek Forbort D    2                                          0*
Filip Chytil C *    2                                10
Marcus Pettersson D *    1                      3
Nils Aman C   1                                       2
Phillip Di Giuseppe LW   1                   0*
Elias N. Pettersson D     1                    2
Victor Mancini D *   1                     2
Daniel Sprong RW *  1                  0*
Arshdeep Bains LW     1                       2
Vincent Desharnais D   0                      0*
Mark Friedman D    0                             0*
Noah Juulsen D       0                                  0*
Kirill Kudryavtsev D  0                              1
Ty Mueller C     0                                        2
Guillaume Brisebois D    0                        0*
Total

 

* means that the player will likely not be back next year or not expected to score any 

goals for Vancouver. 

Adding up the totals gives us at 219. Keep in mind that out of all the teams to make

the playoffs Minnesota was the lowest scoring team at 224. For the Canucks to

make the playoffs I'm looking at adding four players. Let's assume they strike 

out with all the names that have been mentioned by fans the last couple of 

months and slide some names that are under the radar right now. 

Tyson Jost and Reily Smith would be low risk high reward moves. There is 

more risk with Smith at 34 but there is also be more upside. Having a below

average year there shouldn't be too much of a overpayment but his playoff 

experience would be valuable. 

Jost was once a high prospect out of the Penticton Vees and could use a return

to B.C. 

Defenseman Tony DeAngelo would be a great pickup if he can keep any off the ice 

issues away from the team. 

Josh Mahura can fill the Forbot role of just being a depth defenseman and not screwing  up.  With these four additions, I project 241 goals next year and a possibility of making the  playoffs if Demko can stay healthy.

  

Here is how I'm trying to lineup the lines next year:

	LW	C	RW
	Jake Debrusk	Elias Pettersson	Connor Garland
	Nils Hoglander	Philup Chytil	Reily Smith
	Dakota Joshua	Teddy Blueger	Kiefer Sherwood
	Drew O'Connor	Tyson Jost	Aatu Raty
	Defenseman
	Quinn Hughes	Filip Hronek
	Marcus Petterson	Tyler Myers
	Victor Mancini	Tony DeAngelo
	Josh Mahura

Will Any of These Canadians play in NBA?

Taking a deep dive into the top Canadians in NCAA today. Putting the list here as in 10 years it will be interesting to see how many of these Canadians play in the NBA. Also curious how many play for Canada. 

My guess is that only 5-8 players will play in the NBA. However, there are big teams in Europe that might be giving a handful of players a try. There are a boat load of Canadians playing in Europe that I will feature in a future blog. 

These were just the players playing in March Madness this year but there were 100 something players playing in NCAA this year.  

Olivier	Rioux	Florida	Center	7'9"
Emanuel	Sharp	Houston	Guard	6'3"
Aden	Holloway	Alabama	Guard	6'1"
Baraka	Okojie	Memphis	Guard	6'3"
Keeshawn	Barthelemy	Oregon	Guard	6'1"
Will	Riley	illinois	Forward	6'8"
Oliver	Faubert	Saint Mary's	Forward	6'9"
Ryan	Nembhard	Gonzaga	Guard	6'0"
Michael	Nwoko	Mississippi State	Center	6'10"
Jeremy	Foumena	Mississippi State	Center	6'11"
Jalen	Celestine	Baylor	Guard	6'7"
Kobe	Elvis	Oklahoma	Guard	6'1"
Jovan	Milicevic	New Mexico	Forward	6'10"
Bryant	Selebangue	McNeese State	Forward	6'8"
Justin	Rochelin	UC San Diego	Guard	6'5"
Simon	Hildebrandt	High Point	Forward	6'9"
Liam	McChesney	High Point	Forward	6'10"
Josh	Omojafo	Robert Morris	Guard	6'5"
Kyler	Filewich	Wofford	Center	6'9"

...

The Bigger Concern Facing the Canucks

The Canucks seem to be in a major pickle. The short term problems are that they will miss the playoffs this year. That seems to be a given. 

The long term problems are a bit less obvious but they will become the elephant in the room in no time if this team can't right the ship by Christmas. 

Quinn Hughes is arguably the best Canucks player of all time. He almost carried a team that was ravaged by injuries and drama all season to a wildcard berth. Yet, if the Canucks can't put a winner on the ice why would Hughes stick around? With his two brothers in New Jersey, the simple logic states he is more likely to wind up with the Devils then the two brothers coming to Vancouver. 

The sad reality is, July 1st 2027 is coming quicker than most Canucks fans want it to come. To put some numbers in perspective, Erik Karlsson signed a 8 year 11.5 Million per year contract entering the 2020 season. His point production is still elite tallying 101 points in 2023 and 51 points so far this year. He was 29 when he signed this deal. 

I project it will take 14.5 Million a year to sign him. Maybe more if the cap keeps going up. That would be an 8 year deal presumably which would lead him to being 35 years old. Keep in mind that there is a chance he isn't as good after he is 32. The Canucks owe it to their fans to be competitive in the next eight years given their last nine have been underwhelming. 

The other option is to trade him. To use Erik Karlsson again, the haul Ottawa got in 2018 was massive and the Canucks would be able to fetch something similar. Here was the return. 

Erik Karlsson Francis Perron

September 13, 2018

Josh Norris Chris Tierney Rudolfs Balcers Dylan DeMelo 2019 2nd round pick 2019 or 2020 conditional 1st round pick 2021 conditional 1st or 2nd round pick 2022 conditional 1st round pick

Eight assets for two. I would like this return in September 2026 if the Canucks don't have him locked up by that date. Despite Ottawa having a seven year playoff drought, they have put themselves in position to make the playoffs this year. I wouldn't expect the Canucks to go on a seven year absence from the playoffs given their D prospects of Willander and Pettersson it would hopefully be a next man up thing. Especially with cap space this summer and cap space the summer of 2027 if Hughes is off the books.  

This is why the Canucks need to start their contingency plan as soon as possible to avoid dark days after Hughes and this is why I was so against the Marcus Pettersson trade. We need draft picks in the worst possible way or the Canucks once bright future will be over before Canucks fans could want.  

Join My Bracket Pool

I have just filled out my bracket for the 21st time. I have filled out brackets since 2003. My worst year off the top of my head was 2010. I have won the odd pool over the years and successfully picked the champion a few times. 

For the most part I generally try to make my bracket look unique and consequently I could have a better average finish but at the end of the day, if your bracket has the same champ everyone else does than your office pool will more likely come down to a tiebreaker. 

That's why I prefer the CBS pools where the number of points you get for the correct answer is determined by the number seed that team was. Gives some reward for correctly picking a #5 seed to advance to Elite 8. 

I've been running a bracket pool through CBS for a handful of years now. You are all welcome to join the pool here.

I'll have some thoughts about the year in general in a bit. A lot of teams that were 14+ games over 500 that are definitely worthy of holding their own against the bubble teams that weren't close to the bubble because of a weak schedule because Power 4 teams are able to avoid playing mid majors. 

This is a trend that I see going in a concerning direction that I would like to see change. We see upsets in the tournament all the time that makes the mid major's just as exciting as the bubble teams. 

My hot take is that UC San Diego will be in the Pac 12 by 2030.  

Is Canada in Danger of America Overtaking them in Hockey?

Within five minutes of Connor McDavid scoring the golden goal, an American pointed out that I should be embarrassed that Canada can only narrowly beat the States at their National pastime. I quickly disagreed with this response. 

"1. Canada has out priced most families in youth hockey. There are only so many rinks and 5am practices.

2. The own the podium campaign has probably hurt hockey in Canada as other athletes are exceling at other sports. Furthermore, Wales has closed the gap on England in Men's soccer. The world has closed the gap on USA in Men's basketball. It's a natural result of YouTube and other countries getting their act together.

3. What would have happened if NHL's played in the Olympics from 1952-1994?

Canada wins maybe 9 Golds? Hockey is a sport where the best team wins 30-50% of the time so just narrowly winning shouldn't be an embarrassment.

Just remember England can't even win a World Cup in their national sport.  

To dive into this deeper, hockey is one sport where the luck factor is significantly higher than a sport like basketball. This means that there is a any given Sunday feel to hockey in a one off compared to basketball. This is because a goalie can stand on his head and teams can play defensively to prevent goals. In basketball because there are so many possessions the better team is more likely to make more shots. 

Furthermore, a 5-1 win in hockey is way easier to make up than a 40 point game in basketball. 

There also seems to be a misconception of why just now USA has a reasonable chance to beat Canada. If you look up the scores USA has beaten Canada consistently since 1996. Even in the 2002 the game felt like a coin flip. 2014 Olympic Semis Canada only won 1-0. That might have been the best Canadian team ever with a clear #1 goalie in Price. 

USA definitely getting stronger, however, despite Canada's holes at various positions they are still producing just as many future Hall of Famers. That's why Canada is on top of the hockey world. 

As of now there are 394 Canadians in the NHL. Compared to 270 Americans. The Americans have closed the gap considerably over the last 20 years. If that trend continues there will be more Americans than then Canadians by 2040ish. 

Keep in mind, these trends are happening in the opposite direction for NBA, ATP/WTA PGA and etc etc.. More Canadians are in the NBA then ever before. Similar trends are happening in tennis and soccer. So this trend as noted above isn't purely a slap in the face on Hockey Canada. 

However, those stats are redundant if a hockey team can only take 22 to the Olympics. This isn't beach Volleyball or the 100m dash where a country can take all three medals. 

So worst case situation is there are 500 Americans playing in the NHL by the time the 2050 Winter Olympics role around and only 80 Canadians. Canada will still have a fighting chance because they will likely still have three-four generational players. Until Canada stops developing the next McDavid's. Canada will likely still be one of the betting favorites.   

McDavid, Bedard Celebrini.. I'll say it again. Until superstars like these dry up. Don't bet against USA being kings anytime soon.