Saturday, February 22, 2025

Is Canada in Danger of America Overtaking them in Hockey?

Within five minutes of Connor McDavid scoring the golden goal, an American pointed out that I should be embarrassed that Canada can only narrowly beat the States at their National pastime. I quickly disagreed with this response. 

"1. Canada has out priced most families in youth hockey. There are only so many rinks and 5am practices.
2. The own the podium campaign has probably hurt hockey in Canada as other athletes are exceling at other sports. Furthermore, Wales has closed the gap on England in Men's soccer. The world has closed the gap on USA in Men's basketball. It's a natural result of YouTube and other countries getting their act together.
3. What would have happened if NHL's played in the Olympics from 1952-1994?
Canada wins maybe 9 Golds? Hockey is a sport where the best team wins 30-50% of the time so just narrowly winning shouldn't be an embarrassment.

Just remember England can't even win a World Cup in their national sport.  


To dive into this deeper, hockey is one sport where the luck factor is significantly higher than a sport like basketball. This means that there is a any given Sunday feel to hockey in a one off compared to basketball. This is because a goalie can stand on his head and teams can play defensively to prevent goals. In basketball because there are so many possessions the better team is more likely to make more shots. 

Furthermore, a 5-1 win in hockey is way easier to make up than a 40 point game in basketball. 

There also seems to be a misconception of why just now USA has a reasonable chance to beat Canada. If you look up the scores USA has beaten Canada consistently since 1996. Even in the 2002 the game felt like a coin flip. 2014 Olympic Semis Canada only won 1-0. That might have been the best Canadian team ever with a clear #1 goalie in Price. 

USA definitely getting stronger, however, despite Canada's holes at various positions they are still producing just as many future Hall of Famers. That's why Canada is on top of the hockey world. 

As of now there are 394 Canadians in the NHL. Compared to 270 Americans. The Americans have closed the gap considerably over the last 20 years. If that trend continues there will be more Americans than then Canadians by 2040ish. 

Keep in mind, these trends are happening in the opposite direction for NBA, ATP/WTA PGA and etc etc.. More Canadians are in the NBA then ever before. Similar trends are happening in tennis and soccer. So this trend as noted above isn't purely a slap in the face on Hockey Canada. 

However, those stats are redundant if a hockey team can only take 22 to the Olympics. This isn't beach Volleyball or the 100m dash where a country can take all three medals. 

So worst case situation is there are 500 Americans playing in the NHL by the time the 2050 Winter Olympics role around and only 80 Canadians. Canada will still have a fighting chance because they will likely still have three-four generational players. Until Canada stops developing the next McDavid's. Canada will likely still be one of the betting favorites.   

McDavid, Bedard Celebrini.. I'll say it again. Until superstars like these dry up. Don't bet against USA being kings anytime soon.