What Will Happen in Canada's World Cup Qualifying?

Canada is about to embark on a 14 game journey that may or may not lead them to the World Cup in Qatar in 2022. 

Despite the recent success, Canada still hasn't been able to conquer their Achilles heel that have alienated them in decades past. They will have 4 trips into Central America where they will look to put their demons to rest as they look to qualify for the FIFA World Cup in Qatar. 

Assuming that they will lose to USA and Mexico on the road, they will have five other away games where collecting points will be a huge advantage. The tie in El Salvador in 2016, turned out to be the fatal blow in Canada's road to Russia. 

As Potent as our offense is, we still don't know if they can have the same fire power on rough and uneven grass in Central America. To add to this, our defense is our weak part which scares me if things come down to goal differential. 

Our back bone will be tested in the games at Mexico and USA to avoid multi goal losses. The Jamaica games will also be crucial as Jamaica has the third best roster but it will be a less intimidating environment. 

We might need scoreboard help along the way but I'm leaning towards us finishing 5th in the Octagon. Finishing 3rd might require us to win in Costa Rica or Jamaica or getting a draw in both games. That's what scares me. 

There are wins on this schedule. five out of the seven home games should be wins. The problem lies in where can we win one more to get us a crucial 6th. Beating the States for a second consecutive time at home will be harder. El Salvador appears to be the weakest team in the group but that seems to be the swing game for Canada. I have that game being a draw but that seems like it could be flipped easily. That means, holding serve elsewhere. 

I have Canada going 4-2-1 at home and 1-3-3 on the road. They will beat Panama on the road because that's the last game. They will need to run up the score. At the same time, Costa Rica will be able to run up the score on USA more effectively as USA will have already punched their ticket. 

Here are my final Group predictions.  

Pos	Team v t e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Qualification
1	Mexico	14	8	6	0	39	7	+32	30			—	2 Sep	8 Sep	30 Jan '22	13 Oct	12 Nov	16 Nov	27 Mar '22
2	USA	14	8	2	4	25	12	+13	26			27 Jan '22	—	30 Jan '22	8 Sep	12 Nov	7 Oct	27 Mar '22	13 Oct
3	Jamaica	14	6	3	5	21	14	+7	21			2 Feb '22	5 Sep	—	2 Sep	7 Oct	27 Mar '22	13 Oct	12 Nov
4	Costa Rica	14	5	5	4	17	18	-1	19			5 Sep	2 Feb '22	27 Jan '22	—	27 Mar '22	13 Oct	12 Nov	7 Oct
5	Canada	14	5	5	4	18	22	-4	19			30 Mar '22	24 Mar '22	16 Nov	10 Oct	—	2 Sep	8 Sep	30 Jan '22
6	Honduras	14	5	3	6	11	21	-10	18			24 Mar '22	16 Nov	10 Oct	30 Mar '22	27 Jan '22	—	5 Sep	8 Sep
7	Panama	14	3	6	5	10	22	-12	15			7 Oct	10 Oct	30 Mar '22	24 Mar '22	2 Feb '22	30 Jan '22	—	2 Sep
8	El Salvador	14	0	2	12	5	30	-25	2