Tuesday, September 12, 2017

How Low can the UCL Parity Meter Go?

The Champions League is heading for a conundrum like no other which has neutral fans scared for the parity of the UCL group stage or lack there of. Only 16 out of the 55 leagues UFEA Leagues are represented in this years group stage and that should be a cause for concern as that number will likely decrease next year with the new format to be installed. 


What ar UEFA's options is another scary thought. The unbalanced Group Stage over the last few years has been alarming. In fact, unless your a team in the UEFA Top five that include, Spain, Germany, England, Italy and France there is really no hope for a team making a run to the Final Four. With that being said, here are a few options I think UEFA have. 

1. Add More Teams 
32 team group stage doesn't work because of where the strong teams are right now. After the Top 4 teams in Europe there is a big drop off and after the next 8 teams there is a another big drop off. 8 + 4 is 12 so in mathematically four groups are already decided when the draw is out. Increasing the Group Stage would allow for a smaller teams more of a chance. Also, the 6 game group stage doesn't work because it takes about 10.5 points to get to the knockout round. Therefore, teams would have to win all three games to remotely have a chance to advance. With all this said, the margin for error is so small. 

2. Europa League needs to Mean More 
Right now the 48 team Europa League is at times a clown show. Some teams don't take it seriously as some coaches find it a distraction. This will no longer be the case if the Champions League gap becomes wider. Right now the Europa League is competitive with more countries being represented every year. The chance of cinderella is way more possible. 

3. Put the Champions League back into This 
I know this sounds crazy but I think it would increase how special a European night would be. A 56 team Champions League. Every UEFA League gets 1 team into the League. This would make winning the League title super important and would add quality into the Europa League. This would mean in the Group Stage 32 countries would be involved. This likely won't happen but it is kinda keeps the small countries competitive with a chance of drawing a weak group. 

Nothing will change overnight, we will see how the next three year cycle goes starting next year. This last cycle has been deadly for the underdogs and that is not fair to the smaller teams. A league that is dominated by a few teams isn't much of a league. The best sports leagues in the world have lots of parity. 


Anyway, here are my predictions for the UCL Group Stage:

Group A[edit]

PosTeam PldWDLGFGAGDPtsQualificationBASBENCSMMU
1England  Manchester United65101431116Advance to knockout phase27 Sep31 Oct22 Nov
1Portugal Benfica6231107395 Dec12 Sep18 Oct
1Russia CSKA Moscow6123813-55Transfer to Europa League18 Oct22 Nov27 Sep
1 Switzerland  Basel 6024211-9212 Sep31 Oct5 Dec
First match(es) will be played on 12 September 2017. Source: UEFA

Group B[edit]

PosTeam PldWDLGFGAGDPtsQualificationPSGBAYANDCEL
1France Paris Saint-Germain6420113814Advance to knockout phase27 Sep31 Oct22 Nov
1Germany Bayern Munich633017215125 Dec12 Sep18 Oct
1  Scotland  Celtic6033514-93Transfer to Europa League18 Oct22 Nov27 Sep
1 Belgium   Anderlecht 00241140212 Sep31 Oct5 Dec
First match(es) will be played on 12 September 2017. Source: UEFA

Group C[edit]

PosTeam PldWDLGFGAGDPtsQualificationATLCHEQARASR
1Spain Atlético Madrid64111221013Advance to knockout phase27 Sep31 Oct22 Nov
1England Chelsea623195495 Dec12 Sep18 Oct
1Italy Roma 613269-36Transfer to Europa League18 Oct22 Nov27 Sep
1 Azerbaijan Qarabağ6033314-11312 Sep31 Oct5 Dec
First match(es) will be played on 12 September 2017. Source: UEFA

Group D[edit]

PosTeam PldWDLGFGAGDPtsQualificationSCPBARJUVOLY
1 Italy Juventus63211441011Advance to knockout phase27 Sep31 Oct22 Nov
1Spain Barcelona6231117495 Dec12 Sep18 Oct
1Portugal  Sporting CP62228808Transfer to Europa League18 Oct22 Nov27 Sep
1Greece Olympiacos6033216-14312 Sep31 Oct5 Dec
First match(es) will be played on 12 September 2017. Source: UEFA

Group E[edit]

PosTeam PldWDLGFGAGDPtsQualificationSEVMARSPALIV
1Spain Sevilla6411125713Advance to knockout phase26 Sep1 Nov21 Nov
1 EnglandLiverpool 62311412296 Dec13 Sep17 Oct
1Russia Spartak Moscow6123913-45Transfer to Europa League17 Oct21 Nov26 Sep
1Slovenia  Maribor6024510-5213 Sep1 Nov6 Dec
First match(es) will be played on 13 September 2017. Source: UEFA

Group F[edit]

PosTeam PldWDLGFGAGDPtsQualificationNAPFEYMCSHA
1Italy Napoli64201111014Advance to knockout phase26 Sep1 Nov21 Nov
1 England Manchester City63121266106 Dec13 Sep17 Oct
1  Netherlands Feyenoord605138-55Transfer to Europa League17 Oct21 Nov26 Sep
1Ukraine Shakhtar Donetsk00243140213 Sep1 Nov6 Dec
First match(es) will be played on 13 September 2017. Source: UEFA

Group G[edit]

PosTeam PldWDLGFGAGDPtsQualificationBESRBLMONPOR
1 Portugal Porto

6
3219729Advance to knockout phase26 Sep1 Nov21 Nov
1Germany RB Leipzig615086286 Dec13 Sep17 Oct
1France Monaco62227708Transfer to Europa League17 Oct21 Nov26 Sep
1Turkey Beşiktaş  603359-4313 Sep1 Nov6 Dec
First match(es) will be played on 13 September 2017. Source: UEFA

Group H[edit]

PosTeam PldWDLGFGAGDPtsQualificationDORRMAPOTOT
1Spain Real Madrid 66001411318Advance to knockout phase26 Sep1 Nov21 Nov
1Germany Borussia Dortmund6222104686 Dec13 Sep17 Oct
1England Tottenham Hotspur 6123710-35Transfer to Europa League17 Oct21 Nov26 Sep
1 Cyprus APOEL6024117-16213 Sep1 Nov6 Dec

Don't see many surprises. Most groups will be decided by Matchday 3 it feels like. Basically the tier three teams have to literally win all three games or else it is a uphill battle. That's the tough part though. It's an accomplishment when a small team ties a Barcelona or Bayern Munich let alone beat them. That's the challenge UEFA faces to find the best format to make this competitive. 

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