CONCACAF's Format is Picasso in a Nutshell

CONCACAF released the format for the 2022 World Cup Qualifying yesterday and to say the least it has left people scratching there head.

For me, I don't hate it but I'm kinda opposed to it. When I heard the breaking news this morning I had to re read what the format was. Now that I understand it, I can't decide what side of the draw I want Canada to be on.

The Hex Side: 

The best side to be on but also a very difficult group. In the old Hex, there was a chance a Honduras or Jamaica wouldn't be there and be replaced with Guatemala  or El Salvador. Having the Top 6 best teams in the Hex will create a bumpy road for the Top 6. Mexico, USA, Costa Rica are almost locks to be there. Honduras and Panama will likely be there as well. That leaves one spot left.

A League of Nations Title might boost Canada's chances in getting into the Hex but that means beating both USA, Honduras and Mexico. The three team group stage that awaits us this fall is

essentially our Semi Final stage. I've said it all along that three team groups don't work. I mean, the teams that play non fifa members get ripped off more than ever before. The USA game at home has basically become a must win if we want to be in the Hex.

Backdoor Side   

The easy side and with the talent that has been inserted into our lineup we should at least be in the Semi Finals of this side. The problem is that there is still eight hard and intense games if we get to the Swmi Finals and it might mean getting revenge over Haiti at some point.

It is unknown who CONCACAF play in the inter continental playoff will determine which path I believe is better.

The Verdict 

The Hex is the best way to go if we think we can finish Top 3 but that leaves little margin for error. Getting 3rd might require 15 points so that means winning out at home or winning three at home and drawing six of the other seven. Or any combination of 15 points but regardless we would have to get points against teams and venues we haven't been able to in past World Cup Qualifying cycles.

The backdoor side we might be able to run the table to the CONCACAF playoff.

I think CONCACAF got this format right except for one thing. There should have only been two automatic berths in the Hex with the 3rd or 4th place teams playing the two best backdoor teams in a six game round robin with the winner getting the last automatic berth and second place going to the playoff against a team from another confederation.

To have the other 29 teams fighting for basically 0.25 of a berth is kinda harsh. Ranking points have always been hard to accumulate because Canada doesn't play in a Caribbean Cup or something to snag easy points.

I wouldn't lose sleep on this format however because it is a one off as Canada might qualify for 2026 as hosts and we will likely see a new format in 2026 with our confederation getting extra berths.