Thursday, March 10, 2011

Win or Worry

When the Huskies played their first game of the year back in November, not many Huskies fans thought their Pac 10 quarter final game would be a must win.

However, that could be the case tonight when the Huskies battle the Cougars for the right to go to the Semi Finals tomorrow against UCLA or Oregon. The Huskies seemed to be a lock in the tournament at the start of February but have fallen closer and closer to the bubble after each and ever loss. If the Cougars can beat the Huskies for the third time this year, the Huskies could easily be on the bubble when their fans wake up tomorrow morning.

The bubble would be a scary situation for the Huskies. A major category the selection committee looks at is how well a team is playing. If the Huskies end up losing tonight the Huskies would be 5-5 in their last 10 games. That record isn't bad but it also isn't that good either. If I'm on the selection committee I would for sure hesitate to put the Huskies in the field of 68. Washington has lost a lot of games they should have won including at Oregon, at Oregon St and at Stanford.

In contrast, the Huskies strength of schedule is 68th toughest in the nation. Again that is average, but this team did play Kentucky and a under rated Texas A&M team on their own court. They ended up losing both those games but both by slim margins.

That brings me to the question of the week for Husky fans. Are the Huskies in the tournament even if they lose tonight against the Cougars? My gut feeling says yes but what do I know. I've been wrong a lot of times about Bubble in and bubble out. Take Mississippi State for an example last year. Mississippi State was 23-11 and 9-7 in the SEC and reached the SEC Final against Kentucky. Yet the selection committee didn't think that Mississippi State deserved an at large bid following their 75-74 overtime loss in the SEC final. It just goes to show that your never in until your in.

The Huskies did receive some good news today. Senior Justin Holiday will play tonight. That is good news for Washington as the depth of Washington will surely be tested tonight without the presence of Vernoy Overton. When Holiday is playing well he can score some points and be a good defender.

For the Cougars, I believe they have to at least win today and tomorrow. If that would to happen the Cougars would be 21-11 and have a good case for being in the tournament. The Cougars will also get a lift when they get Klay Thompson and Reggie Moore back in the lineup. They both missed Washington State's last game against UCLA.

If you break this game down, it could go either way. The Cougars have beaten the Huskies two straight times but they played well both times. Do the Cougars have enough in their tank to beat their in state rival Washington following their 58-54 heartbreaking loss on Saturday to the Bruins? If I had to make a prediction on this game I would put my money on the Cougars. Washington has faced a lot of distractions off the court this year and are clearly not playing their basketball of the year. If Washington is going to win this game tonight they have to keep Klay Thompson in check. In the Cougars two wins this year against the Huskies, Thompson has scored a total of 51 points. That trend will continue and Washington's habit of shooting too many threes will hurt them in a 65-61 loss.

The game's tip time is scheduled for approximately 8:40pm and will be on FSN.

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