This is a very similar system to one that hockey adopted prior to the 2015 NHL Draft. The only difference was they only draw the top three teams and the percentages are a bit off. Since that inaugural draft lottery with that system, there have been many teams in the NHL that have benefited that wouldn't have if the system hadn't changed.
What does this tell us? That both the NHL and NBA have found a method that will eliminate trying to land a franchise player in the upcoming draft. For instance, there is a huge difference this year from picking 1st and 5th and in many years this is the case.
NHL Lottery Draft Results since 2015:
|
2015
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
2016
|
1
|
4
|
6
|
|
|
2017
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
|
|
2018
|
1
|
11
|
4
|
|
|
2019
|
3
|
6
|
12
|
|
2019 NBA 8 9 1 11
As the NHL draft results have indicated, the ping pong balls have came out all over the place. The worst team has gotten a Top 3 pick three out of five times for a 60% chance. The law of averages is 53%. If you look at the second worst team you have received a Top 3 pick just once. That is 20% with the law of averages being 38% Etc etc.Fans like to have a knee jerk reaction when something happens in the lottery that doesn't favor their team. The NBA lottery as mentioned above is slightly different in that the percentages are different and they have four draws.
The reality is, these draws have to be conducted 1000's of times to have the law of averages even out. If it were me, I would have 14 draws to see how far teams could really fall but from the data that has been collected, it is easy to see why this works. There is no pattern and impossible to predict. Exactly what the NBA wanted.
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